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Golfers worth betting on at TPC Sawgrass

Bryson DeChambeau survived a windy Sunday at Bay Hill to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational by one stroke over Lee Westwood. DeChambeau, a victor at 12/1, made just one bogey (1-under; 71) during tough Sunday conditions (field average score of 75.5). He is the third choice at BetMGM to win The Players Championship this weekend at 16/1 behind OWGR No. 1 Dustin Johnson (12/1) and Jon Rahm (15/1).

Here are some players who are worth a wager at TPC Sawgrass.

Jon Rahm (15/1)

Was the 54-hole leader here two years ago before making three bogeys in his first four holes on Sunday. He rinsed his approach on 11, had a buried lie in the bunker on 16 and hit one in the drink at the famous island green on 17 for good measure. All of that led to a disappointing 4-over 76 and dropped him to a T-12 finish. This looks like the perfect time and place for redemption. Since that poor Sunday finish two years ago, Rahm has five worldwide victories and five runner-up finishes. He is a much different player now. The OWGR No. 2 has started 2021 a bit slow largely due to an equipment change with Callaway and now playing with a new ball. The flat stick has seen the most slippage as he ranks just 99th for SG: Putting over the course of the last 24 rounds. Nevertheless, he is always elite tee-to-green and has a couple career wins on Pete Dye designs at the Zurich Classic and American Express.

Justin Thomas (20/1)

Has had a tumultuous start to 2021. His unfortunate use of language was caught on a live mic during a round in Hawaii and he subsequently lost one of his chief endorsers. In his next start, he missed the cut in Abu Dhabi, Then, his grandfather sadly passed away and he missed the cut at Riviera the following week. Last time out, he finished T-15 at the Concession. Inaccuracy off the tee ended up costing him, but at TPC Sawgrass he can be more judicious with the use of his driver and use the 3-wood or irons off the tee. He has made the cut here in all five appearances (third in 2016).

Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm
Getty Images

Patrick Cantlay (25/1)

Is in stellar form with a second at the American Express and T-3 at Pebble Beach, and has a history of good showings on Pete Dye courses. In 2017 and 2019, he was in the top 10 after 54 holes here so he has taken a bit of a liking to the place. Last year, Cantlay shot an opening-round 66 which was good for fifth before the event was canceled. No player in this field has been better for SG: Total over the last 24 rounds.

Tommy Fleetwood (40/1)

Has gone well here with finishes of fifth and seventh over the last two years and was the 36-hole leader in 2019 along with eventual winner Rory McIlroy. Last week, he was three off the lead after 54 holes, but struggled on Sunday in the windy conditions and finished T-10.

Cameron Smith (66/1)

A bit of a speculative midrange play here considering Smith has missed two of three cuts at TPC Sawgrass, but Smith has the look of a player that is about to peak. The Aussie finished fourth at Riviera and 11th at the Concession after a poor Saturday round.

Corey Conners (66/1)

Was third last week at the Arnold Palmer, leading the field for SG: Approach. The tee-to-green game is usually on point for the Canadian, but the putter lets him down too frequently. However, he gained almost 3.75 strokes last week on the greens at Bay Hill and certainly prefers Bermuda greens.

Chris Kirk (125/1)

His last two starts in Florida stand out with a T-8 at Bay Hill last week and a win last summer in the King & Bear Classic at nearby St. Augustine. He has made seven of his last eight cuts at TPC Sawgrass and three of the last six were top-13 finishes.


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